TL;DR Boeing getting Starliner to the ISS will distract from airplane failures, and will allow the government to be less reliant on SpaceX, you should buy calls (unless you think it'll explode, then buy puts)
Background
- Boeing is in the doghouse right now, reputation-wise for some insignificant shit like scaring some passengers with a minor unscheduled depressurization and maybe probably not doing a good job with the whole airplane manufacturing thing.
- The stock market is a hyper-real simulacrum, everyone seems to be trading based on anticipating other traders' sentiment and not the underlying value of the stock (though that's nothing new)
- Currently SpaceX is the only company operating in the space-freight business
- The current White House hates Elon because he hates Joe Biden, but they can't do shit because they need what he's selling
- Getting real live humans to the ISS on Starliner will prove it's ready to compete with SpaceX
- Boeing is so far integrated into the MIC that they're basically a part of the US Gov and will therefore never be allowed to fail
What's happening now and why does it matter?
- Tonight, at 10:34 EDT Boeing is going to launch the Boeing Starliner atop a ULA (aka BA+LMT) Atlas V
- If it doesn't kill anyone or abort, the Starliner will be a proven spacecraft that will be capable of doing normal trips to the ISS with crew and freight
- The current administration doesn't like Elon but needs SpaceX
- The government likes working with Boeing because they're dependable, even if they're dependably over budget and past deadline
- A successful manned launch will get people all hot and bothered, and they'll buy stock based off that sentiment
- People will be distracted from the airplane failures, which is good for Boeing
Non-professional guidance
- Buy calls if you think the rocket will make it
- Buy puts if you think Sunita Williams et al. are going to die
My position: $BA 5/31 190C
submitted by /u/Enrico_Motassa[link] [comments]